Democrats Need Four Senate Seats as Red-State Races Tighten

Democrats entered the election cycle as underdogs in the Senate, with many of the seats up for grabs sitting in states Trump carried in 2024. That picture has changed. The Cook Political Report now rates contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups, all states Trump carried by double digits two years ago, and polling in those races sits within the margin of error.

To win a Senate majority, Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held seats. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said her party has candidates competing in deep red and purple states. "People want change, and we have so much talent on the field right now," she said.

National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary Bernadette Breslin countered that Democrats are overreaching, calling their agenda unaffordable and pointing to candidate recruitment questions in Alaska. There, the campaign for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is alleged to have helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, a matter first reported by The New York Times.

North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points in 2024, is now rated as a likely Democratic pickup, with both parties expecting former Gov. Roy Cooper to win the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. Trump said at a stop in the state earlier this month, "He's going to become your senator," adding, "and it's crazy." Georgia, once a prime Republican target, is now rated as a likely hold for Democrats, with Sen. Jon Ossoff favored on the strength of his campaign fundraising.

Money is flowing into the Texas race, where Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost his primary and state Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced with Trump's endorsement. More than $500 million has been spent on that contest since the primary, including over $300 million from Republicans. State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has led in nearly every poll there, though those leads have stayed within the margin of error. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

South Carolina, where Trump won by 18 points in 2024, is rated as leaning Republican after Sen. Lindsey Graham died. Trump pushed for Graham's sister, Darline, to take the seat, and she is running against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. Mississippi and Nebraska are also rated as likely Republican wins, with Trump carrying both by more than 20 points in 2024.

Republican turnout will shape how many seats change hands. Low GOP turnout could produce a net gain of one or two seats for Democrats, while stronger numbers could push that to six or seven. Republicans are competing for Democratic-held seats in Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and taking any one of them would narrow the path to a Senate majority for Democrats.