Polling data: Christian nationalism shrinks but stays loud

Andrew Whitehead, a sociology professor at Indiana University Indianapolis, reports that the share of Americans firmly identifying with Christian nationalism is falling. The data comes from the Kettering Foundation and Gallup, which surveyed more than 23,000 adults for their annual national poll. Whitehead defines Christian nationalism as the belief that Christianity defines the nation and that government should take active steps to maintain that status. He notes that while the core group is shrinking, the rhetoric remains loud in federal government and media circles.

The numbers show a specific shift in public opinion. Around 14% of the U.S. population strongly embraces the ideology, while just over 16% are at least sympathetic to it. Whitehead points out that this decline in strong believers does not mean the concept has faded from national discourse. In fact, he argues it is now more integrated into political discussions than at any previous point. The survey breaks down these figures by demographic groups. Among white Americans, 31% are at least sympathetic. Men show higher levels of sympathy at one-third, compared to 28% for women.

Political affiliation drives much of this divide. More than half of Republicans, specifically 55%, strongly embrace or sympathize with Christian nationalism. Whitehead explains that this alignment influences how voters perceive the current state of government. Those who embrace the ideology tend to worry less about threats to democracy than those who reject it. When asked to evaluate how democracy is functioning, strong believers say it is doing great. In contrast, very few respondents who reject the ideology think democracy is doing well or even okay.

These perceptions are shaping voter motivation for the 2026 midterm elections. Whitehead notes that nearly 70% of respondents resist or reject Christian nationalism. This large group is currently driving turnout because they want Congress to check the power of the executive branch. He observes that this check has not been effective in the first two years of the Trump administration. The survey suggests that the tension between these two groups will be a central theme of the upcoming campaign.

Religion is also appearing on the ballot in unexpected ways. While it is common for Republicans to combine religion and politics, five Democrats are running in Congressional races this cycle who are either clergy or in training to become clergy. This presence adds a new layer to the religious aspect of the midterms. Whitehead, a research fellow for the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, says understanding where people fall on this spectrum reveals a lot about their views on how democracy operates. The data paints a picture of a nation where fewer people hold the beliefs strongly, but the impact of those beliefs on political behavior remains high.