Israelis to vote Tuesday as polls show 52 to 50 seat split

52 seats. That is the number a public broadcaster survey projected for the opposition alliance in Israel's legislative elections held Tuesday. The poll, released before a publication ban took effect on Friday, gave Netanyahu's coalition 50 seats. Neither group is expected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The vote marks the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. The resulting war in Gaza has defined the political landscape for the past three years. Campaigning centered on security failures, judicial reform, and the military exemption status of ultra-Orthodox communities.

The pro-Netanyahu bloc consists of Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition side includes the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. Parties must win at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter parliament.

Unaffiliated parties, including Ra'am and the Joint List, are projected to capture the remaining seats. Both major coalitions have ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties in the short term. This stance may lead to a minority government or a second election if coalition talks fail.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces personal stakes in the result. He has led Israel for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He is currently on trial for corruption charges filed in 2019. A defeat would leave him vulnerable in court, where a conviction could result in prison.

Netanyahu also faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The vote coincides with heightened international criticism of Israel's military operations in Gaza and the West Bank. On September 24, dozens of diplomats walked out of the UN General Assembly during his address.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, allowing those parties to win up to 15 seats. The Supreme Court recently reversed a Central Elections Committee decision that had barred the Joint List and Ra'am from running.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal factions view the vote as a critical moment for the country's democratic institutions. Netanyahu has argued his rivals are likely to partner with Arab parties. The Supreme Court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over a past article describing the 2023 attacks.