Poll: Democrats Lead House Ballot

A new poll conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News finds that Democrats hold an eight-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. The survey, fielded on October 19 and 19-20, indicates that Democrats are positioned to gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives if the election were held today. Among registered voters, the Democratic advantage is wider, standing at 10 points.

The study surveyed 1,289 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. When narrowed to likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 points. This is the first survey in the current cycle where Marist applied a likely voter screen. The results suggest that while Democrats retain a structural edge, the magnitude of their potential gains may be tempered by shifting voter engagement.

President Donald Trump’s job approval remains low. Among registered voters, 61 percent disapprove of his performance, compared to 38 percent who approve. Among likely voters, disapproval stands at 59 percent while approval is at 40 percent. Fifty-three percent of both registered and likely voters strongly disapprove of the president, a figure that ties the highest recorded in this polling series. Trump’s favorability rating is even lower, with only 37 percent of likely voters holding a favorable view.

Despite the presidential deficit for Republicans, the path to a large Democratic wave faces obstacles. Democrats historically convert leads on the generic ballot into substantial seat gains, averaging a seven-point lead in 2018 and a 12-point lead in 2006. However, recent redistricting efforts by both parties have tilted the map in favor of Republicans, creating a structural headwind for Democrats. This has generated measurable anxiety within the Democratic party. Ninety-eight percent of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat, but only 81 percent believe their candidate will win. That 17-point gap is significantly larger than the 10-point gap observed among Republican likely voters.

Enthusiasm levels present a complex picture for Democrats. Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely than Republicans to report being very enthusiastic about voting, with 71 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of Republicans expressing high enthusiasm. However, several key Democratic demographic groups show lower energy levels. Only 42 percent of likely voters under 45 are very enthusiastic. Among non-white voters, the figure is 53 percent, and among white women with college degrees, it is 56 percent. In contrast, 68 percent of MAGA supporters and 66 percent of white women without degrees report high enthusiasm.

Attention to the election has also narrowed. In the previous month, 42 percent of Democrats said they were following the election very closely, compared to 34 percent of Republicans. In the current poll, the numbers are nearly identical, with 46 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of Republicans paying very close attention. Among likely voters, 51 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans report high attention levels.

Economic conditions remain a primary concern for voters. Thirty-eight percent of respondents stated their personal finances have worsened in the past year, while 44 percent said they have stayed about the same. A third of people reported experiencing financial hardship. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans Democratic, cited high food and gas prices as a major strain. He described the costs as being too expensive for the American people in general, regardless of who they voted for.

Immigration and the cost of living continue to divide the electorate. Sixty-one percent of respondents believe immigrants should have a legal path to stay in the country if they meet certain requirements. However, two-thirds of Republicans said immigrants should be required to leave. On the issue of artificial intelligence, six in 10 respondents said the construction of new data centers will mostly have a negative impact on the country. Sixty-six percent opposed the construction of a data center in their own community, with 41 percent strongly opposing it. Republicans are split on the national impact, while Democrats and independents overwhelmingly oppose local construction.

Confidence in election integrity remains high, though Republicans express less certainty than Democrats. Three-quarters of likely voters are confident that state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats share this confidence, compared to 68 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of independents. MAGA supporters were almost 30 points less likely than Democrats to trust the process. When asked if their preferred candidate should accept the results, 70 percent of Republicans said yes, but a quarter said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the outcome.