4.4 Million Floridians Have Cast Early Votes as GOP Eyes Tuesday Turnout

More than 4.4 million Floridians cast ballots as of Friday afternoon, according to the University of Florida Election Lab tracker. Registered Republicans accounted for 40.4% of those votes, while Democrats held 38.4%. Non-party-affiliated and third-party voters made up 21.2% of the total.

Despite a 2% margin in the early vote, state Republican leaders downplayed the Democratic lead. Anthony Pedicini, a Republican strategist, told the Phoenix via email that Democrats have already voted in their most reliable supporters. He noted that Republican super-voters typically show up on Election Day. Pedicini added that no one should celebrate until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

County-level data shows mixed results for the GOP. In Polk County, Republicans held a 13-point registration advantage, but as of Friday morning, they had cast just 468 more votes than Democrats. Kat Gates-Skipper, a Polk County GOP state committeewoman, said the party is urging voters not to wait until Tuesday.

Hillsborough County presents a different picture. Republicans overtook Democrats in party registration there in early 2025, gaining nearly 20,000 more registered voters. However, Democrats held an 18,312-vote lead as of Thursday afternoon. April Schiff, a Hillsborough County state GOP committeewoman, said Democrats appeared to have more enthusiasm for their top-of-the-ticket candidates.

Democratic strategist Jackson McMillan acknowledged that Republicans usually turn out in force on Election Day. He said the GOP needs to increase their turnout lead to R+25 to be comfortable, whereas they are currently in an R+2 environment. Chris Mitchell, another Democratic strategist, warned that increased Democratic turnout and non-party voters breaking for Democrats could hurt Republicans.

Some Republican leaders cited midterm election patterns for the slower early pace. John Roberts, chair of the Escambia County Republican Party, said enthusiasm naturally drops in off-year elections compared to presidential cycles. Jack Brill, chair of the Republican Executive Committee in Sarasota County, predicted a closer race similar to 2018 rather than the 2022 cycle.

In 2018, the margins for DeSantis and other major races were within 0.5 percent, triggering recounts. In 2022, DeSantis won by 19 points. DeSantis said this week in Crystal River that voter enthusiasm in 2022 was high. He noted that voters were willing to walk over hot coals to get to the polls.