49 Million Early Voters Lead 2026 Midterm Surge

The 2026 midterm election season has accelerated at a pace that surpasses all recent historical benchmarks. University of Florida Election Lab data confirms that nearly 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots. This figure includes both mail-in votes and early in-person casting in states where such voting is permitted. Michael McDonald, the professor who maintains the tracker, stated that these numbers now exceed pre-election levels from the 2022 midterm cycle. McDonald noted that his 2022 figures did not include some mail-in votes tallied after Election Day. He observed that turnout is rising across the board. He expects the final turnout rate to be higher than in 2022.

Pope Leo XIV has also participated in the early voting surge. The Vatican confirmed Friday that the pope cast a mail-in ballot for the election. He is registered to vote in Illinois. This participation adds to the record-breaking numbers tracked by the university lab.

In Michigan, a planned unity event has faced new friction. Rep. Haley Stevens and Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed are scheduled to appear together at a Black church on Sunday. The event was organized as part of a visit by Rep. James E. Clyburn of South Carolina. However, the two candidates released competing statements on Friday. Stevens said she agreed to the joint appearance because she believes El-Sayed plans to formally condemn a controversial advertisement. The ad, which is critical of U.S. aid to Israel, was described as antisemitic by some Jewish groups. Stevens called Clyburn a dear friend and mentor. She emphasized that Clyburn asked her to attend the service.

El-Sayed responded to Stevens in the evening. He stated that he defeated her despite $70 million in outside spending from big corporations and AIPAC. He urged Democrats to focus on defeating Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. He also called for holding President Trump accountable and passing Medicare for All. El-Sayed said Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago. Polls indicate El-Sayed is in a tight race with Rogers. His support levels are lower than other statewide Democrats. The tension increased after Stevens’s fiancé said he planned to vote for Rogers due to El-Sayed’s rhetoric on Israel.

President Donald Trump has rescheduled two campaign rallies in Iowa and Kansas. These events were canceled on Thursday in favor of tele-rallies. The president will now campaign in person in both states on the weekend. The shifting plans added complexity to the final stretch of campaigning. Both states have unusually close Senate races. Trump will also travel to Daytona Beach, Florida, for a rally on Friday. He aims to boost the gubernatorial candidacy of Rep. Byron Donalds, who is also in a competitive race.

The Cook Political Report projects that Democrats could win the House majority. The nonpartisan group says Democrats are favored in enough races to secure up to 240 seats. This would be their largest majority since 2009. Analysts attribute this momentum to public dissatisfaction with the economy. Democrats are using a strategy similar to Trump’s 2024 campaign. They are blaming Republicans for rising prices caused by tariffs and the war in Iran.