Model Flags Ben James As Top Contender For Mexico Open

The 2026 Vidanta World Mexico Open begins Thursday at Vidanta Vallarta, where 500 FedEx Cup Fall points and a $6 million purse are up for grabs. For bettors and fans looking for edge, a computer model built by DFS professional Mike McClure has generated predictions that diverge sharply from the bookmakers. The model, which has correctly picked the winner of 17 major championships, identifies 23-year-old Ben James as a top-two contender and a value bet on the board.

The event has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 2022. Previous winners at this venue include Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp, and Brian Campbell. The current field features a deep roster of contenders, with Wyndham Clark listed as the favorite at +1200 odds by FanDuel Sportsbook. Other top-rated players include Tom Kim and Doug Ghim, both at +1800, and Ben James at +2000.

The model, developed by SportsLine, simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce its projections. The algorithm has a strong recent track record, including correct picks for the 2026 Masters, which marked its fifth consecutive Masters selection. It also correctly predicted the winners of last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.

One major surprise in the data is the model's low rating for Marco Penge. Despite being a favorite at +2200, the simulation projects that Penge will not finish in the top 10. The model cites a lack of recent high finishes, noting that Penge has not placed higher than T10 since March of this season. His most recent result was a T68 finish at the Bank of Utah Championship earlier this month, an event with a similar field strength.

In contrast, the model favors Ben James based on his performance in the second half of the year. The University of Virginia graduate recorded a top-25 finish at the U.S. Open. He also finished T15 or better at the ISCO Championship, the Corales Puntacana Championship, the Wyndham Championship, the Biltmore Championship Asheville, and the Bank of Utah Championship. These results support the model's assessment of him as a value top-5 bet.

The algorithm also targets a massive longshot at approximately +3500 odds, predicting a strong run up the leaderboard for that player. The full projected leaderboard and specific picks are available through the SportsLine platform. The model's ability to identify profitable picks has drawn attention from sports bettors following the FedEx Cup Fall series.

The tournament field includes 100 players, with odds ranging from Wyndham Clark at +1200 down to Alejandro Fierro and others at +100000. The event serves as a key opportunity for players to accumulate points in the fall portion of the season. The model's predictions provide a data-driven counterpoint to the traditional betting lines established by sportsbooks.

The Vidanta World Mexico Open will conclude Sunday. The results will determine the winner of the $6 million purse and the distribution of FedEx Cup Fall points. The model's prediction for Ben James places him as a primary candidate for the title, challenging the pre-set favorites like Wyndham Clark and Tom Kim.