NPR: Local journalism decline leaves state polls with wide margins of error

National pollsters missed on Republican turnout slightly, but state surveys contained errors that ranged from six to eight percentage points.

Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor, told listeners that the gap between national and state data comes from money. National outlets have the funds to pay for rigorous, frequent polling. Local newspapers and TV stations no longer have that budget. Montanaro said this decline in local journalism allows low-quality and even fake polls to appear in state surveys. He noted that a margin of error of plus or minus three or four points creates a range of six to eight points. He argued that voters expect more precision than the data provides.

Montanaro said reporters should focus on trends rather than specific margins. He explained that races are often close enough to fall within the margin of error. He added that polling helps show how public opinion moves on issues and approval ratings over time. He stated that campaigns and corporations use the same pollsters as news organizations to decide where to spend money and how to craft messages. He concluded that polling is one tool that must be mixed with historical context and on-the-ground reporting.

NPR correspondents discussed why midterm elections offer unique reporting opportunities. Sam Gringlas, an NPR congressional reporter, said covering House and Senate races is more intimate than covering presidential rallies. He listed locations where he covered candidates this year: an antique shop, a farmer's market, a UAW picnic, a family farm, and a smokejumper-themed brewery. He said these settings allow journalists to watch candidates interact with voters up close. Tamara Keith, an NPR senior political correspondent, said she is tracking the race in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District out of personal curiosity. She described the race as messy because the Republican nominee moved to the district recently and blamed his grandchildren for a campaign misstep. She said the retiring Republican congressman voted for a Libertarian and uses colorful language to criticize the GOP nominee.

Correspondents also identified ballot measures in Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, Alaska, and California that will shape the post-election political map. Montanaro said Democrats may face a split in congressional power if they win one or both chambers. He noted that split power often stops legislation unless there is compromise. He added that only two times since World War II has the president's party picked up seats in a midterm. Those years were 1998 and 2002. Montanaro said investigations and oversight would be the main effect of a Democratic victory in the House or Senate.

Montanaro said the 2026 midterms will serve as a check on the executive branch. He pointed to the California wealth tax initiative as an example of a high-stakes vote where tens of millions of dollars have already been spent. He also noted that Nevada voters will decide on their primary system and ranked choice voting. He said the outcome in Nevada will show if voters continue to support that system after years of close votes.

Keith said she remains optimistic about covering elections despite the stress of the season. She asked listeners to check back in a week and a half to see how her sleep debt is doing. She added that her positive outlook might be pre-election euphoria. Gringlas said midterms are fun because reporters avoid the stadium-size venues and security pens used in presidential cycles. He said the smaller scale of state races allows for more direct questions and clearer answers from candidates.