Trump's Approval Plunges to 37% Ahead of Tuesday's Vote

President Donald Trump visited Iowa and Kansas during the final weekend of the campaign to defend Republican Senate seats.

The two states were part of a targeted strategy to limit losses in a midterm cycle that polling shows will be difficult for the GOP. Trump traveled to those states in person while holding remote rallies in 19 other locations. The Iowa and Kansas trip was briefly canceled late in the week but then reinstated just before the weekend. This move suggests his team is focused on holding the line in competitive districts.

Recent polls indicate Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37%. This is down from an average of 52% early in 2025. The drop breaks below the 40% threshold that has historically preceded severe midterm defeats for the president's party. The House majority is expected to flip to the Democrats. The Senate race is too close to call, though Vice President JD Vance retains the tie-breaking vote if the GOP holds the majority.

The decline in approval ratings stems from economic frustrations and unmet foreign policy promises. Voters cite elevated inflation and high gas prices as primary concerns. Trump had pledged to make goods cheaper and tame inflation, but the public sees sustained cost increases. Foreign policy issues, such as the lack of progress on peace in Ukraine, also weigh on support. Democrats have leveraged the gap between Trump's pronouncements and delivered results.

Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, published a list of 11 questions Democrats must answer if they regain power. He asks whether the party will prioritize the interests of working-class voters over its recent focus on race, gender, and environmental policy. Teixeira argues that the party's internal divisions, particularly between moderate consensus builders and progressive firebrands, pose a risk to governing effectively. His work highlights the tension between the party's base and its need to attract white, non-college educated voters.

The 2026 midterms also test public confidence in the election system itself. Nonpartisan experts note that voting administration has improved since the Help America Vote Act of 2002. That law replaced punch-card ballots with touch-screen technology and paper trails. However, Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of polls and news reports. He often asks reporters about their affiliations and labels them fake news. His history of claiming fraud in 2016 and 2020 sets a backdrop for potential disputes over the 2026 results.

The election will determine whether the will of the people is clearly heard. It will test the mechanisms and individuals involved in the process. For generations, Americans have shown confidence in their electoral systems, but that faith is now a point of contention. The outcome will shape the next phase of American political life and the balance of power in Congress.